[crude oil closed] US $1.9 trillion novel coronavirus rescue bill passed! EIA crude oil inventory growth far exceeded expectations, two major crude oil futures closed up slightly

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House of Representatives voted 220 for and 211 against the novel coronavirus rescue bill, which is worth $1.9 trillion

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The plan will be submitted to US President Biden for signing into law

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Although EIA crude oil inventories have increased significantly for the second week in a row, little can compare with the economic recovery in the post epidemic era in terms of boosting oil market sentiment

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In addition, the impact of storm driven demand and production issues is expected to continue to be reflected in this week’s data

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The two major crude oil futures rebounded from the previous two trading days

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As of press release, U.S

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WTI crude oil futures for April ended up 43 cents, or 0.67%, at $64.44/barrel; Brent crude oil futures for may ended up 38 cents, or 0.56%, at $67.90/barrel

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On the previous trading day, US oil fell $1.04, or 1.60%, to $64.01/barrel; Bu oil fell 72 cents, or 1.05%, to $67.52/barrel

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(5-minute trend chart of WTI crude oil futures in April, source: fx168) Fundamentals: 1

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On Tuesday local time, the U.S

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House of Representatives voted 220 in favor and 211 against, and passed the $1.9 trillion novel coronavirus rescue bill

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The plan will be submitted to US President Biden for signing into law

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The main measures of the rescue bill include: a maximum of $1400 for each person, and about 90% of families and individuals will be eligible

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The federal government will increase unemployment benefits by $300 a week

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Expand the children’s tax allowance to a maximum of $3600 per child

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Novel coronavirus pneumonia is allocated to US $350 billion as state and local aid, and billions of dollars are allocated to help small businesses affected by the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, vaccine research, development and distribution, and K-12 schools to help primary and primary school students return to the classroom

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Food stamp benefits will be increased by 15% and extended to September

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Help low-income families pay rent, etc

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On Tuesday local time, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a short-term energy outlook report

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The EIA estimates that the price of WTI crude oil in 2021 will be US $57.24/barrel, which was previously expected to be US $50.21/barrel; the price of Brent crude oil in 2021 is expected to be US $60.67/barrel, which was previously expected to be US $53.20/barrel

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WTI crude oil price is expected to be US $54.75/barrel in 2022, which was previously expected to be US $51.56/barrel; Brent price is expected to be US $58.51/barrel in 2022, which was previously expected to be US $55.19/barrel

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The growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2021 is expected to remain unchanged, at 5.38 million barrels per day

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U.S

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crude oil production is expected to decrease by 160000 B / D in 2021, compared with 290000 B / D previously

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OPEC + held a meeting last Thursday

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At the meeting, Saudi Arabia and OPEC and allies decided to continue to control oil supply, shocked the oil market, led to soaring oil prices, and the global economy stepped out of COVID-19 with another inflationary pressure

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OPEC + member states agreed to maintain the current scale of production reduction, and only Russia and Kazakhstan were exempted from increasing production slightly

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Saudi energy minister said that he did not think the oil market would overheat

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Last year, Saudi Arabia suffered alone, and now it must remain vigilant and cautious

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Amrita, chief oil analyst at energy aspects, a London based consultancy, said OPEC + would definitely face the risk of over tightening the oil market

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Fundamental negative factors: 1

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At 23:30 p.m

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Hong Kong time on Wednesday, the data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that as of March 3, crude oil inventory increased by 13.798 million barrels, expected to decrease by 833 million barrels, and the previous value increased by 21.563 million barrels; gasoline inventory decreased by 11.869 million barrels, expected to decrease by 4.167 million barrels, and the previous value decreased by 13.624 million barrels; refined oil inventory decreased by 5.544 million barrels, expected to decrease Crude oil inventories in the US Gulf of Mexico rose last week to the highest level since July last year; domestic crude oil production in the US increased by 900000 B / d last week, the largest increase since October 23, 2020

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U.S

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President Biden has sought to restart negotiations on a nuclear agreement with Iran, but severe economic sanctions have not been lifted

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Iran insists that the United States lift sanctions before it rejoins the talks

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However, according to data provided by industry sources, in recent months, Indian state-owned refineries have added Iranian oil to their annual import plans, and the US sanctions against Iran are expected to be lifted soon

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Iran’s president Hassan Rouhani said on Wednesday that Iran and the United States could gradually resume the 2015 nuclear deal, which seems to soften previous claims that the Biden administration must immediately lift all Sanctions in order to make progress

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Rouhani told a cabinet teleconference on Wednesday that once the United States does so, Tehran is ready to fully comply with the terms of the agreement

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But he said it would also consider a phased return of the two parties, stressing again that it was up to Washington to take initial action

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Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said last Thursday that Russia needs to increase its crude oil production in April due to seasonal demand

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Due to the decision of OPEC +, the oil price has risen by 6% today, and the recovery of oil price is optimistic

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We should monitor oil prices to avoid overheating

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Russia’s crude oil production reduction rate in February was slightly higher than 100%

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The oil market will return to pre crisis levels in early 2022 or mid 2022

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Oil prices are likely to stabilize

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Institutional comments: 1

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Huijin Youdao’s Cao Bowen is short on the trend of WT crude oil futures this week

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He said that crude oil broke the one hour level rising channel since February 12 last week, but after stepping back 38.2% from 51.6 to 63.8, it went back to the rising channel again

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On Friday, it hit 66.4, which is the high point in April 2019 and near the upper track of the rising channel

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Therefore, he thought that this kind of short-term rise was too fast and then came to the heavy market To the resistance level, at least need to callback, combined with the rising channel of high throw low absorb, this week is more likely to fall

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Zero hedging comments on financial blog said that WTI crude oil futures continued its intraday rise despite the significant increase in EIA crude oil inventories for the second consecutive week

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Stephen brennock, an analyst at PVM, a brokerage, said there was little to compare with the post epidemic recovery in terms of boosting sentiment in the oil market

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In addition, the impact of storm driven demand and production issues is expected to continue to be reflected in this week’s data

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