New crown vaccine, four questions and four answers!

The investment and research information platform built for financial professionals is expected to be less productive

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——Four questions and four answers about the novel coronavirus vaccine from the Research Press: first, what is the progress of the global launch of the novel coronavirus vaccine? From the perspective of vaccine R & D progress, 17 novel coronavirus vaccines have entered or completed phase III clinical trials, 9 are in phase II, and 7 of them have published specific data of phase III clinical trials

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Biontech / Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZeneca / Oxford, China biological group / Beijing Research Institute, China biological group / Wuhan Research Institute, Kexing biological, bharatbiotech and other companies’ novel coronavirus vaccines have been approved for listing in some countries in the world

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(this is the current first-line vaccine in the world) at present, the domestic companies involved in the novel coronavirus vaccine are: China biology, Kexing biology, kangxinuo, Zhifei biology, Watson biology, Fosun medicine, Kangtai biology, among which the vaccines of China biology and Kexing biology have been listed

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In addition to the listed China biology and Kexing biology, the most promising domestic self-developed novel coronavirus vaccines in the near future are kangxinuo and Zhifei biology

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Considering that Zhifei biology is a Chinese funded enterprise, if the phase III trial data is optimistic, it may be put into emergency use

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Second, what’s the progress of the novel coronavirus vaccine in the world? At present, some countries in the world have carried out novel coronavirus vaccination, and the vaccination progress in Europe, the United States, the Middle East and other developed regions is ahead of that in developing countries

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As of January 31, 2021, nearly 90 million doses have been inoculated worldwide

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In terms of vaccination quantity, the United States, China, the United Kingdom, Israel and the United Arab Emirates ranked in the top five, with 29.58 million, 22.77 million, 8.86 million, 4.73 million and 3.11 million respectively; in terms of vaccination rate, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the United States ranked in the top five, with 55%, 32%, 13% and 9% respectively

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Considering that the vaccination will start in the UK on December 1, 2020 and in the US on December 12, 2020, according to the current vaccination rate, it will still take 13 months and 15 months for the UK and the us to complete the comprehensive vaccination, and it is expected that the universal vaccination will be completed in February and April 2022

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At present, it is mainly aimed at the emergency vaccination population

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According to the press conference of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council on February 4, 2021 released by the National Health Commission, as of 24:00 on February 3, China has reported a total of 31.236 million doses of new coronavirus vaccine for key groups

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However, in the actual process of vaccination, insufficient vaccine production capacity has become a key bottleneck to limit the progress of vaccination

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Globally, Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca, the major suppliers of novel coronavirus vaccines, recently proposed to reduce the delivery of novel coronavirus vaccines to some countries and regions due to capacity problems

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Under this situation, there is a “battle” for vaccines all over the world

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The United States and the European Union have increased their procurement efforts and strengthened their control over vaccine exports

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According to the current production capacity of the world’s major new vaccine manufacturers, the total annual production capacity is about 2.63 billion, which is difficult to meet the global vaccination demand

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By the beginning of 2022, the total production capacity of the world’s major new vaccine manufacturers is expected to reach 9.5-9.9 billion, and the problem of insufficient vaccine supply is expected to be alleviated

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From the domestic perspective, the total annual production capacity of China’s biological and Kexing Zhongwei vaccines, which have been on the market and are about to be on the market, is 620 million, and the output in the first quarter is expected to be less than 155 million

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With the gradual expansion of the scope of domestic vaccination, short-term novel coronavirus vaccine will face the situation of tight supply and demand

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In the future, with the launch of more categories and the expansion of production capacity, the total annual production capacity of domestic novel coronavirus vaccines is expected to exceed 2 billion, and the situation of tight supply and demand will improve

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Third, what will be the price of the vaccine? If the whole people get vaccinated free of charge, does it mean that vaccine manufacturers will lose money? Previously, guolianfang said at a news conference that “the novel coronavirus vaccine will be provided free of charge for all people”, but the meaning of free vaccination is that the country will purchase the vaccine uniformly and vaccinate the people free of charge, and the cost of purchasing the vaccine will be solved by the central finance

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From the perspective of production technology, the new coronavirus inactivated vaccine is simpler than seasonal influenza vaccine

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The cost of 3-valent influenza A vaccine is about 30-40 yuan, so the cost of Xinguan inactivated vaccine should be less than 30 yuan

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However, considering that the production needs P3 laboratory with high safety level, and the cost reduction of scale is limited, the final cost may be about 50 yuan

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In terms of price, at present, the price of emergency vaccination is about 200 yuan / piece, which is a big drop compared with the previous statement of 1000 yuan / 2 pieces of national medicine

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However, at present, it is not universal vaccination, and the production capacity is in short supply

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Considering that the follow-up countries pay for universal free vaccination, it is expected that the price of vaccine will decrease to a certain extent (the financial conditions are not allowed to be too expensive), and it is expected that the price will be reduced to less than 100 yuan (about 70-80 yuan / vaccine is a common type I influenza vaccine in China at present)

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Roughly deduced from the above data, the gross profit of each vaccine is about 100-50 = 50 yuan

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Fourth, what is the sustainability of the vaccine effect? Is one vaccination enough? The key to the persistence of the vaccine effect is the mutation of the new coronavirus

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If the new coronavirus mutates, its infectivity increases and its virulence decreases, it will eventually become similar to the influenza virus

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The validity period of influenza vaccine is less than one year, so it needs to be vaccinated every year; and the protection period of new coronavirus inactivated vaccine can be determined to be more than half a year, but it is not easy to last more than one year

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Therefore, if the new coronavirus maintains high variability, it may need to be vaccinated every year

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Note: no matter how good the logic is, the timing of intervention and exit should be chosen in combination with the trend of market rise and fall

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The above content is only based on the static analysis of industry and company fundamentals, not without dynamic trading guidance

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There are risks in the stock market, so we need to be cautious when entering the market

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Please take the risk at your own risk

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The essence of de retail investors is to eliminate the stock speculation ideas after the past small scattered, and to invest along the ideas of institutions with the times

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After all, with the continuous influx of foreign capital, the market discourse power of institutions is becoming stronger and stronger

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The research group must arm itself with the weapons of the organization

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This is the mission of the research group all the way

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The stock sea is stormy

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Follow the ship of the research group and let the president take you for another 500 years!.

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