The inflection point of the increasing number of diagnosed cases in the novel coronavirus in the world has emerged.
We estimate that the demand for overseas antigen detection reagents and domestic nucleic acid detection reagents will continue to be strong in the first half of 2021.
It is suggested to pay attention to Oriental biology, Wanfu biology, Da’an gene and Zhijiang biology; In the long run, the epidemic situation has greatly promoted the development of PCR industry and is expected to benefit from becoming a leader in the industry.
It is suggested to pay attention to Shengxiang biology and Huada gene.
Novel coronavirus pneumonia: COVID-19’s tracking: the inflection point has passed, and the trend is expected to continue.
From the epidemic data, as of February 28, 2021, the total number of confirmed cases of newly diagnosed crown pneumonia in the world was about 115 million cases.
The daily increase rate began to drop rapidly after the peak of 859 thousand and 200 cases of global confirmed diagnosis reached 859 thousand and 200 cases in January 7, 2021, and has dropped to less than 300 thousand cases as of March 1st.
In terms of trend, the inflection point of increasing cases has passed.
According to the scientific research results, the new infection rate decreased significantly after the mass vaccination of the novel coronavirus vaccine in Israel.
We infer that the main reason for the decline of the global daily increase cases before the vaccination of the novel coronavirus vaccine is that the daily increase and decline trend is expected to continue under the background of the continuous expansion of the scope of vaccination.
Under the neutral assumption, we expect that the daily increase is expected to drop to about 70000 by the middle of 2021, and the cumulative confirmed cases will reach 136 million.
impact of IVD industry: the development is accelerated, promoting changes in supply and demand, pattern and industry.
In the short term: overseas: at present, the overseas epidemic situation is severe and there are many infected people, so there is a strong demand for simple and efficient rapid detection test paper for novel coronavirus antigen; At present, there are relatively few approved types of antigen test paper products, and the production capacity is still in the construction period.
At present, the supply of products is in short supply.
The price of previously widely used nucleic acid detection reagents has declined greatly due to the extrusion of antigen reagents and intensified market competition.
Under the idealized assumption, we calculated the consumption and market scale of overseas antigen and nucleic acid detection reagents in the first half of 2021.
It is estimated that 2.52 billion people will be consumed respectively, corresponding to the market scale of US $5.04 billion; The consumption of nucleic acid detection reagents is 420 million, and the corresponding market scale is 2.11 billion US dollars respectively.
domestic: the current situation of epidemic prevention and control in China is good, so we pay more attention to accuracy than efficiency, so nucleic acid detection reagents are widely used.
We do not fully calculate from the aspects of regional epidemic investigation, admission, escort and medical staff detection, return to school detection, migrant workers’ Spring Festival return and normalization detection.
It is conservatively estimated that about 488 million novel coronavirus nucleic acid detection reagents will be consumed in China in the first half of 2021, with a corresponding market scale of 4.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 93.1%.
In the long run: PCR laboratory construction “paves the way”, and the industry becomes muddy and smooth.
Too few PCR laboratory resources and too concentrated distribution are a major obstacle to the development and application scope of the PCR industry.
This problem is expected to be significantly improved after the policy promotes the sinking of PCR laboratory resources, which will bring incremental grass-roots market to the industrial chain.
It is a prerequisite for driving the outlook and rapid development of the whole industry.
rapid technical iteration, PCR old trees sprout new buds.
The novel coronavirus has greatly promoted the technological upgrading and innovation of PCR industry.
For example, automatic nucleic acid extractor is widely used in sample processing.
In terms of nucleic acid amplification, the amplification reagent is shortened to one-third to 30 minutes through technical upgrading; In terms of application scenarios, a series of POCT products and detection vehicles have been launched to improve the coverage; In terms of sensitivity, the products meet the high sensitivity requirements through iterative upgrading and survival of the fittest.
It is generally believed in the industry that the epidemic has made the molecular diagnosis technology develop for more than 5 years.
tuyere enterprises are expected to take the opportunity to overtake in curves and sail overseas.
High quality and efficient enterprises in the initial stage can seize the strategic opportunity window period during the epidemic period, quickly get through the early stage of the company’s development and realize overtaking in curves.
In addition, the epidemic makes some high-quality products of enterprises go abroad.
Even after the epidemic subsides, their internationally competitive products will still benefit from domestic substitution and innovation dividends all over the world for a long time, so as to open the road of full export of domestic medium and high-end medical manufacturing.
investment idea: in the short term, we will focus on the demand, and in the long term, we believe that in the short term, the demand for novel coronavirus antigen rapid detection products in overseas markets will continue to be strong; The domestic demand for nucleic acid detection reagents is still at a high level, and enterprises with a high domestic market share will give priority to benefit.
In the long run, the epidemic situation has greatly accelerated the development of the PCR industry.
It is expected that the industry will enter a stage of high prosperity, increased players and fierce competition.
Enterprises with advanced technology, excellent quality and complete production lines are expected to win finally.
At that time, they will enjoy the double dividend of improving industry concentration and PCR technology progress to form a better alternative to other current IVD technologies.
Specifically, in terms of antigen detection reagents, it is suggested to pay attention to Oriental biology and Wanfu biology; Nucleic acid detection reagent enterprises with high market share in China suggest paying attention to Da’an gene and Zhijiang biology; Long term industry leaders suggest paying attention to Shengxiang biology and Huada gene.
risk warning: market competition intensifies risk; Risk of epidemic change; The promotion of PCR at the grass-roots level is less than the expected risk; Policy change risk; Overseas market and exchange rate risk.